NFC North: Draft Preview

Minnesota Vikings

First Round Picks in 2010: #30

Best Pick of 2009: WR/KR, Florida, 1st round, Percy Harvin (60 receptions, 790 yards, 6 TDs; 27.5 yards per kick return average, 2 TDs)

Team Needs:

• CB (Antoine Winfield is 33 and missed some time in 2009…Not sure Benny Sapp or Karl Paymah are great long term options)
• LG/LT (LT Bryant McKinnie, LG Steve Hutchinson and reserve LT Artis Hicks are all over 30 and could use some depth to help in case of injuries)
• QB (If Brett Favre decides to retire, the Vikings are left with Sage Rosenfels and Tavaris Jackson…Neither has proved they are a franchise QB, so drafting a developmental guy is a possibility…I doubt they’d grab one at #30, but if somebody climbs the boards pre-Draft, maybe they’d take a chance)

Potential Targets:

• CB Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State (Not huge on Cox, but others are, so I’ll keep him here)
• CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State (According to ESPN’s Mel Kiper, Wilson has been shooting up the proverbial draft boards…Don’t forget about the winning pedigree that Boise breeds…Wilson had 42 tackles, 3 INTs and 2 return TDs in 2009)
• LT Bryan Bulaga, Iowa (Bulaga was the Big Ten’s Offensive Lineman of the Year in 2009, was named to the first team All-Big Ten in 2009, to the second team All-Big Ten in 2009, and to the 2007 Freshman All-Big Ten team…If he plays to his accolades he could be a steal late in the first round)

Green Bay Packers

First Round Picks in 2010: #23

Best Pick of 2009: LB, USC, 1st round, Clay Matthews (50 tackles, 10 sacks)

Team Needs:

• S (Both starting safeties from 2009, Atari Bigby and Nick Collins and two reserve safeties, Charlie Peprah and Derrick Martin, are free agents and they may not be able to keep both starters and could pass on the others)
• RB (In my opinion, Ryan Grant needs a better spell back; Ahman Green, Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn combined for just 290 yards in only 24 total games…Grant’s contract is laden with steep roster and yardage bonuses that may not be worth his production going forward; plus it’s up after 2011)
• DE (Johnny Jolly, BJ Raji and Cullen Jenkins combined for only 6.5 sacks…They get sack production from LB also with Matthews leading the way with 10, but could use some help from the end positions if Jolly isn’t resigned)

Potential Targets:

• S Taylor Mays, USC (If teams with a need at safety need to reach for Mays, he probably won’t be around at 23, but if he is, the Packers would gladly take him to replace their free agents)
• RB Jahvid Best, Cal (Best has good potential but has concussion issues that caused him to slip, in my mind, to the back end of the First round, possibly Second round)
• DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida (Character issues should help Dunlap slip also…In the tough SEC, he had 9 sacks)
• DE Ricky Sapp, Clemson (Sapp is undersized, but will be available if the others are not)

Chicago Bears

First Pick in 2010: #74 (due to Cutler trade)

Best Pick of 2009: WR, Abilene Christian, 5th round, Johnny Knox (45 receptions, 527 yards receiving, 5 TDs; 1 kick return TD)

Team Needs:

• S (The Bears have a no name group at safety after Daniel Manning [free agent], led by Al Aflava and Kevin Payne, they could stand to add a possible playmaker)
• OL (The Bears need depth for the offensive line…By sacks, the offensive line was ranked 19th…They allowed 79 QB hits [The Colts line allowed 44 for comparison])

Potential Targets:

• S Larry Asante, Nebraska (Asante racked up 77 tackles in 2009 and added 2 INTs and a return TD…According to Scouts INC, Asante is the 7th ranked safety and is ranked 72nd overall)
• C Justin Walton, Baylor (Walton is the best prospect at center and should be available in the Third round…What better way to add depth than to add the top ranking player at his position)

Detroit Lions

First Round Picks in 2010: #2

Best Pick of 2009: QB, Georgia, 1st round, Matt Stafford (2,267 yards, 13 TDs, 20 INTs)

Team Needs:

• DT (The Lions rush defense allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 126.6 yards rushing per game…Grady Jackson, 37, is old and should be on his way out…Cliff Avril and Jason Hunter have potential as DEs but need good play in the middle to help them get to the quarterback)
• WR (Calvin “Megatron” Johnson needs better support than Dennis Northcutt and Bryant Johnson [both had only 35 catches and averaged just 22.3 and 26.1 yards per game, respectively])
• CB (The CB group has some recognizable names in Anthony Henry and Phillip Buchanon, but both landed in Detroit for underachieving and haven’t changed their ways yet)

Potential Targets:

• DT Gerald McCoy Oklahoma (McCoy, 6′4″ and 296 is about the same size as Ndamukong Suh, but is less athletic…He’d still be a good addition to the center of the defense that should shore up the rush defense)
• WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (I sound like a broken record, but Bryant has some serious talent, but is a reach at #2)
• CB Joe Haden, Florida (Much like Bryant, Haden fills a need, is the best player at his position, but is a reach at this spot)

Note: I think that the Lions would be best moving this pick because they do have other needs.  The 49ers and the Seahawks have two First round picks and are not as far from winning as the Lions, so drafting one player from a position of need, rather than two best available players makes sense.

ON THE CLOCK NEXT WEEK: NFC West

NFC South: Draft Preview

New Orleans Saints

First Round Picks in 2010: #29+ (pending playoff finish)

Best Pick of 2009: CB, Ohio State, 1st round, Malcolm Jenkins (55 tackles, 1 INT; played nickel cornerback position)

Team Needs:

• CB (Corner was a position of weakness for the Saints due to a rash of injuries…Starters Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer missed 4 and 7 games respectively…Must be nice that the 7th ranked pass defense is the team’s weakest spot right now)
• S (Darren Sharper has seen his career revived this season in New Orleans, but will need to be replaced in a season or two…Malcolm Jenkins could play safety, so a move there and drafting a CB is a possibility)

Potential Targets:

• CB Patrick Robinson, FSU (Robinson is the highest graded player at the position that should still be available but played on a horrific FSU defense)
• CB Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State (Cox is slightly taller than Robinson, but it’s a toss up for me, I’m not sure there is a difference)
• CB Kyle Wilson, Boise State (Chances are, Wilson can be had later in the second round, but I think there is something to be said for the winning pedigree that Boise breeds…Wilson had 42 tackles, 3 INTs and 2 return TDs in 2009)

Atlanta Falcons

First Round Picks in 2010: #19/20 (depending on coin flip)

Best Pick of 2009: CB, San Jose State, 3rd round, Christopher Owens (29 tackles, 2 INTs)

Team Needs:

• DE (Jamaal Anderson only had .5 sacks and John Abraham only had 5.5…Falcons finished 26th in sacks with just 28)
• Rush LB (For the same reasons as above, plus OLB Stephen Nicholas is probably expendable if the right OLB is drafted)

Potential Targets:

• DE Jason Pierre-Paul, USF (This year’s best defensive end, he probably won’t be available at 19, but the Falcons could trade up for him)
• DE Carlos Dunlap, Florida (Character issues should help Dunlap slip…I think he could have been a Top 10 pick if he stayed on the right path in school…He had less sacks than Paul [9 to 6] but is less of a dominating player)
• LB Sergio Kindle, Texas (One of the best outside linebackers in 2010, Kindle can help get the pass rush going…He had a total of 16 sacks in 2008 and 2009)

Carolina Panthers

First Pick in 2010: #47/48 (depending on coin flip; traded first round pick)

Best Pick of 2009: CB, South Carolina, 7th round, Captain Munnelyn (44 tackles, 15 games played)

Team Needs:

• OLB (Nai’ll Diggs had just 38 tackles in 2009 and will be 32 at the season start, so it’s time to groom a replacement…Picking so late does not help)
• WR (Muhsin Muhammad is old, he’ll be 37…Steve Smith needs another wide receiver to take attention off him)
• QB (Jake Delhomme is not the long term answer at QB…Neither is Matt Moore, but he can hold down the fort while somebody else is taught the system)

Potential Targets:

• LB Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri (Weatherspoon had better numbers in 2008 than 2009 [149 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 INTs, 2 return TDs to 103, 4, 1, 0] but he was a three year starter at a Big 12 school)
• LB Eric Norwood, South Carolina (I like Norwood and his style of play…He can probably be picked a bit later, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers reached a bit…He’s big at 252 pounds but can get to the QB, he had 16 sacks in his last two years at SC)
• WR Demaryius Thomas, Georgia Tech (He’s big for a WR at 6′3″ and 225 lbs but can still perform…Despite being Georgia Tech’s only option at receiver he still gained 1,154 yards…He’d be a nice complement to Smith)
• QB Colt McCoy, Texas (McCoy is a tricky pick for me because of his now injured shoulder and its concerns, but he could still be available in the middle of the second if nobody is overrating him)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

First Round Picks in 2010: #3

Best Pick of 2009: QB, Kansas State, 1st round, Josh Freeman (1,857 yards, 10 TDs, 18 INTs)

Team Needs:

• WR (TE Kellen Winslow was the team’s leading receiver due to Antonio Bryant’s injuries and the lack of a supporting cast…Rookie Sammie Stroughter was the second best receiver, so the Bucs can do better)
• CB (Ronde Barber is going to be 35 and needs to be replaced if the secondary is to stay the Bucs strength…Remember, Coach Raheem Morris is a defensive backs coach at heart)
• DT (The Bucs were dead last in rushing defense, so a lane clogging DT could help)

Potential Targets:

• WR Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State (As I’ve mentioned in the past, Bryant may be the most talented player in the draft, but off-field issues kept him from playing much in 2009…He would be a starter from Day One)
• DT Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska (He’ll most likely be gone, but it’s not impossible for him to fall to the third pick)
• DT Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma (McCoy is less athletic as Suh, but about the same size…He is a prototypical mountain of a nose tackle)
• CB Joe Haden, Florida (Coach Raheem Morris is probably salivating over Haden, but he may be a reach at #3…Somebody may want to trade up a few spots, if so, Tampa may listen and hope to grab Haden at #5-7)

ON THE CLOCK NEXT WEEK: NFC North

Should the Redskins Take Bradford?

In a follow-up to my NFC East Draft Preview, I wanted to touch on what I think the Redskins should, or more importantly, not do with the #4th overall pick.

According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, Sam Bradford will be going at #4 to the Redskins.  Bradford won the 2008 Heisman as a QB at Oklahoma, but was plagued by shoulder injuries this year and missed a majority of the 2009 season.  He did try coming back mid-season, so his toughness isn’t in question, but he was re-injured almost instantly.  Many Washington fans, I’d bet, are hoping Bradford would be an upgrade over Jason Campbell.  I’m sure those ‘Skins fans are fed up with Jason Campbell’s shaky play, but I’m not sold on Campbell being the team’s weakest link.

Before I jump into the low-lights of the Redskins, let’s take a quick look at their strengths.  The defense, believe it or not, was ranked 10th in total defense in the NFL.  The defense allowed an average average (ranked 18th) of 21 points per game, which for many offenses is not an insurmountable total.  S LaRon Landry, LB London Fletcher and DE/LB Brian Orakpo offer some solid pieces for the defense.  There’s also plenty of talent in DT Albert Haynesworth and CB DeAngelo Hall who both had sub par seasons in 2009. 

On offense, the running game proved to be deep and something to build upon.  Injuries hit the Washington backfield confoundingly hard, but they continued cranking out role players who put up decent numbers in emergency relief.  Realistically, you cannot expect your third- or fourth-string RBs, Rock Cartwright and Quinton Ganther, to step in and play great, but they did okay; they averaged 3.6 and 3.2 yards per carry respectively.  Clinton Portis, who suffered through injuries in 2009, will be reunited with Coach Mike Shanahan.  In Denver, Shanahan was famous for his “plug and play” rushing attack which allowed many RBs to succeed; this led to Portis being expendable and his trade to Washington.  In Portis’ two seasons in Denver, he rushed for 1,508 and 1,591 yards and a total of 29 rushing TDs.  If he can return to health, he’ll be good again.

It is always easy to blame the QB, but I believe that the Redskins should look elsewhere to help improve the team.  It has been oft talked about in the media that Jason Campbell has had to endure multiple offensive scheme changes since high school.  This uncertainty would lead any quarterback to questionable numbers.  As bad as his play has been illustrated, it really hasn’t been that bad. 

In 2009, a year marred by the aforementioned injuries to the running back corps, Campbell put up numbers worthy of another shot.  In the statistics I deem most important (completion percentage, average yards per attempt, yards per game and passer rating), Campbell finished in the top half of the 32 starting QBs.  Going by just passer rating (since it factors in completions, attempts, touchdowns and INTs), look at some of the guys who finished below Campbell: Carson Palmer, David Garrard, Vince Young, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck and Matt Cassel.  None of those teams, even the Jags who may take a chance on Tim Tebow, are seriously looking to replace their starting QB.

I’m arguing that the Redskins should look to improve their offensive line with that #4 pick.  In 2009, Jason Campbell was sacked a total of 43 times, which was second most in the NFL.  It’s logical to assume that if Campbell was better protected, he could improve upon his already solid numbers.

There is a very interesting trend showing that the top offensive tackle picked each year will become a star player.  The top OTs taken in 2005-2008 (Jamaal Brown, D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Joe Thomas and Jake Long) have all been named to at least one Pro Bowl.  The same cannot be said for ANY other position. 

Judging by that trend, the place to look when in need of a franchise building block is the offensive tackle position.  The 2010 OT draft class is stronger than in recent memory and includes three guys that may all go in the Top 10: Russel Okung, Trent Williams and Anthony Davis.  Chances are one or two of those guys will still be available and should be taken by Washington to help solidify Campbell’s protection.

If you watched the Cowboys vs. Vikings game this past weekend, you probably noticed the importance of a good left tackle.  Once the Cowboys lost LT Flozell Adams to injury, the Vikings were all over QB Tony Romo (they sacked Romo and forced a fumble on the next play, actually).  Pop media, including Michael Lewis’ bestselling book “The Blind Side” and the theatrical release that followed, have also portrayed the importance of protecting the quarterback.

Adding a hulking beast to anchor the left side of your offensive line may not be the sexiest draft pick, but given enough time, a standout offensive tackle can help improve an offense.  The two teams who invested their time and patience in developing a top space-eating tackle in 2005 and 2006, the New Orleans Saints (Brown) and New York Jets (Ferguson), are enjoying success in 2009.

(PS- I’m not scared off by Bradford due to his recent injury history, I’m mostly stating that he’s not enough of an upgrade over Campbell)

Quick Hits: Leach/Leavitt/Mangino, The Pro Bowl, Rooney Rule and the KC Chiefs

Physical Coaches

For whatever reason, it seems that 2009 was the first time that Universities decided to crack down on physical head coaches.  Mark Mangino was fired from Kansas from being rough with a player, so was USF Coach Jim Leavitt.  Texas Tech fired Mike Leach after he supposedly mistreated one of his players.  In each case, I’m not sure it was the individual actions that forced the coach out.  Tech has publicly feuded with Leach over contact issues in the past; they ultimately acquiesced and resigned him, but at a very steep price.  Mangino, I believe, was somewhat discriminated against.  Let’s be honest, him being so overweight didn’t look great since he was the head coach of one of the school’s biggest athletic draws.  Leavitt had been with USF since the school created the football program, and it may just have been time for a change; they have never won much of anything, despite rising to #2 in the country on 2007.

In cases where the coach seriously misbehaved, and when there is conclusive evidence to the fact, I have no problem with firings.  If Leach really did shun WR Adam James to a utility closet for having a concussion, fine, I can understand the decision to dismiss him.  At first, the allegations against Mangino were that he poked a player in the chest.  Really?  Most employers would need to show some form of evidence of wrongdoing to dismiss somebody that otherwise was a model employee.  I feel that these coaches should at least be afforded the same tenure benefits of the school’s professors.  In reality, the money that the football team brings in probably pays for the collective salaries of all those professors.

The 2009 Pro Bowl

I’ve never been a fan of the Pro Bowl.  It’s nice to have the lists to add to a player’s resume or to help sportswriters make their cases for or against certain guys, but is the game necessary?  This year the Pro Bowl is being played before the Super Bowl, so any of the players on the Super Bowl rosters will be plucked from the exhibition game.  The two championship contending teams, logically, should have a decent amount of Pro Bowlers, so ten or twelve guys will have to scramble out to Miami to take their places. 

Doesn’t really make sense to me.  I know the League is trying to make the game more meaningful and less of an afterthought, but I’m not sure if this is the way.  I’ve never tuned in to watch a Pro Bowl game, and probably never will.  The game is just too watered down to be fun to watch.

What would I do you ask?  I would keep the “Pro Bowl” lists, because as I said, they are useful for gauging individual players’ seasons.  When somebody says QB John Doe had 2,500 yards in a season, you may think to yourself, “that’s a pretty low number.”  If your buddy also told you that Doe made the Pro Bowl that year, you’d know that, comparatively to his peers, Doe played excellently.

Also, I would hold skills competitions instead of an actual game.  I remember growing up and looking forward to the “Quarterback Challenge” each year.  I’m sure they still have these competitions, but they don’t market them heavily and are not at the forefront of the festivities  Courses and contests could be created for each position and, in my opinion, they would be more interesting than the half-speed game.

If the competitions were scheduled correctly, it would lead into the Super Bowl just how the current League brass want the Pro Bowl to.  They could use the six days preceding the Super Bowl to showcase each individual position.  A one or two hour competition would allow viewers to just pick up and watch and wouldn’t be a hindrance if they wanted to schedule their evening around the event.  Right now, it’s tough to say “I’m going to set aside four hours to watch a meaningless exhibition game,” but somebody could easily say, “my favorite players are Brett Favre and Desean Jackson, so I’ll set aside two hours on Monday and Thursday.”

I can almost guarantee it would never happen, but I think it would be for the best.

The Rooney Rule

The Rooney Rule has come into question with the recent hirings in Washington and Seattle.  The minority interview candidate, in both instances, was brought in just to satisfy the requirement and not because he was actually being considered.  I can understand this being embarrassing for the interviewee.  At the same time, though, the chance to interview for a head coaching job is a great way to get your name in the headlines.  Before his interview with the ‘Skins, how many fans have heard of Jerry Gray?  I could have made up a name (maybe I did) and you would never know.  His name is out there now and could actually be considered in somebody else’s search in the future.

When I was finishing up my undergraduate degree, one of my professors who was giving us career advice told us to “go on as many interviews as you can, even if just to practice.”  His thought was that even if you knew you were under-qualified and would not get the job, it was good practice; you had to go through the motions, get the suit on, fix your resume, work on your public speaking, etc.

On the flip side, I don’t think its necessarily fair for an organization to have to expend time and resources to interview and consider candidates that will never get the job.  Since mid-November it was probable that Mike Shanahan would land in DC, so why bother interviewing anybody else?

It’s undeniable that a head coach interview, even if in vain, is a great opportunity for minority coaches.  And it’s pretty inefficient and wasteful to have to interview superfluous candidates.  So, my compromise is this: When an organization is looking for a new head coach (or GM), if they have earmarked a single person to take the job, they may interview that single person; however, if they cannot agree with that candidate, they must satisfy the minority interview requirement while continuing their search. 

Race is always a delicate situation, and I have to be honest,  I think minority coaches are at a pretty good spot right now.  Let’s be real for a second; there are not many Asian-American or Hispanic-American coaches around the League, so we are mostly talking about African-Americans as the minority coaches in question.  In 2008, African-Americans made up 12.8% of the US population.  As of Week 17 of the 2009 season (not including newly signed coaches or coaches who were fired) there were seven black coaches.  That’s 21.8% of the head coaching “population.”  Sure, when you say only seven coaches are black, it sounds as if they are being discriminated against, however, they represent a higher percentage of coaches than America’s demographics would dictate.

I’m not trying to be insensitive, just posing an argument.  I do believe that there are two few minority executives in the League.  I do not have easy numbers to check this fact, but I would expect the number to plummet lower than 12.8%.

The Rooney Rule, in some fashion, is necessary in the NFL, but I’m afraid that strict requirements will lead to misguided and embarrassing attempts at satisfying the rule.

The New Kansas City Chiefs

With the additions of Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crennel to the coaching staff, the Chiefs are beginning to resemble the old New England Patriots.  The two coordinators, along with GM Scott Pioli were a team with the Pats during the 2001-2004 seasons.  In case your forgot, those seasons led to two Super Bowl championships in 2002 and 2004.

In no way am I asserting that the Chiefs will contend in 2010, but think about it, they may not be that far off.  Their QB Matt Cassell is a Patriots product; he was drafted, rather questionably, after not starting a single game at USC.  All Cassell did was step in for Tom Brady in 2008 and lead New England to an 11-5 record.  The Chiefs defense is led, emotionally, by LB Mike Vrabel, another Patriots vet. 

WRs Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers provide a solid duo for Cassell.  Moreover, Jamal Charles established himself as a bonafide number one running back after Larry Johnson was cut.  The defense is weak, but with high draft picks, that could be addressed.

I have no doubt in the Patriots methods of piecing together a solid roster through good drafting and smart signings and trades.  Therefore, I have no doubt that the Chiefs will begin to look like a winning team sooner rather than later.

NFC East: Draft Preview

Dallas Cowboys

First Round Picks in 2010: #25+ (pending playoff finish)

Best Pick of 2009: K, USC, 5th round, David Buehler (Led the league in touchbacks as kickoff man)

Team Needs:

• CB (Corner is a weakness after the top two of Terrence Newman and Mike Jenkins…Newman is starting to show his age and has always been slowed by nagging injuries)
• OL (Suffered through injuries, notably RT Marc Colombo’s broken leg…Age is a factor for Colombo and LT Flozell Adams…Unit may only have one more year together)
• WR (Miles Austin has emerged as a solid WR, Patrick Crayton and Roy Williams are serviceable and show flashes, but neither can take over a game)

Potential Targets:

• WR Golden Tate, Notre Dame (Not a physically imposing player like TO was or Roy Williams is, but he has tons of speed and a knack for getting open)
• OT Bruce Campbell, Maryland (Best OTs will be off the board, but Campbell could make sense late in the 1st round)
• CB Joe Haden, Florida (I doubt it would happen, but Jerry Jones has shown a penchant for trading picks…Cowboys would have to get into the Top 10, possibly Top 5 to get Haden)

New York Giants

First Round Picks in 2010: #15

Best Pick of 2009: WR, UNC, 1st round, Hakeem Nicks (47 receptions 790 yards 6 TDs)

Team Needs:

• LB (Danny Clark, Johnathan Goff and Michael Boley do not equal a top LB corps…Antonio Pierce should be back in good health, but he’s shown that he can be an off-field distraction as well)
• DE (Osi Umenyiora said he had issues with DC Bill Sheridan, even though Sheridan’s gone, Osi may not stop complaining…Justin Tuck suffered through shoulder injuries…Adding DE depth could let Mathias Kiwanuka rotate back to a rush LB spot)
• RB (The Giants’ rush attack was best when it had three parts…Ahmad Bradshaw injured both ankles, one was a recurring injury from college…Brandon Jacobs, in his third year as a starter, had his lowest rushing total yet having more carries [202, 219, 224; 1,009, 1,089, 835] and only averaged 3.7 yards per carry)

Potential Targets:

• LB Rolando McClain (Could be gone by #15, but would immediately help)
• LB Navarro Bowman (Should still be available, not as desirable as McClain though)
• RB Jahvid Best (Some injury concern in college, but when he was healthy he was a workhorse, could take pressure off Jacobs and allow him to be a short yardage back)
• RB Jonathan Dwyer (Big numbers may have been a product of the triple option offense at Georgia Tech, but maybe not, interesting upside)
• DE Jason Pierre-Paul (Chances are he will already be off the board, but he may be the best sack man in the first round)

Philadelphia Eagles

First Round Picks in 2010: #24

Best Pick of 2009: WR, Missouri, 1st round, Jeremy Maclin (55, 762, 4)

Team Needs:

• LB (Serious injuries at LB crippled the Eagles…Akeem Jordan and Will Witherspoon missed significant time and Stewart Bradley was out for the year…Some insurance would be a good idea)
• RB (Brian Westbrook is as good as retired, and the Eagles could use another back to complement LeSean McCoy…McCoy did well, but is neither a great short yardage back or a breakaway touchdown threat)

Potential Targets:

• LB Brandon Spikes (Spikes played well down the stretch and would learn a lot from Jeremiah Trotter and Stewart Bradley)
• LB Sergio Kindle (With Texas losing the National Championship, Kindle’s stock may have fallen in some scout’s minds…If the Eagles go LB first, he should be there)
• RB Jonathan Dwyer (As I mentioned, Dwyer’s upside is interesting…He’d probably end up starting by mid-season)

Washington Redskins

First Round Picks in 2010: #4

Best Pick of 2009: DE/LB, Texas, 1st round, Brian Orakpo (50 tackles, 11 sacks)

Team Needs:

• S (Reed Doughty, Chris Horton and Lendy Holmes don’t inspire confidence next to Laron Landry; Landry is best when given freedom to get close to the line of scrimmage, adding a talented safety would allow that)
• OL (The line was hit hard by injury with Chris Samuels and Mike Williams ending on the IR)
• WR (Antwaan Randle El is not a solid #2…Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly are okay, but there is room for improvement)

Potential Targets:

• S Eric Berry (There’s a chance that Berry will already be gone at #4, but if he’s there, it would be smart for the ‘Skins to take him to solidify the defense…The defensive line and linebackers are good and the corners would be better with more help from the safeties)
• OT Russel Okung (6′8″, 299; makes Okung a huge pillar for the offensive line)
• OT Trent Williams (6′5″, 306; Williams is shorter and about the same weight, possibly a better fit on the right side so he stays out of the QB’s throwing lanes)
• WR Dez Bryant (Possibly the most talented player in the Draft, Bryant was sanctioned by the NCAA and missed most of the 2009 season…If he works out well, he should jump up the draft board and will be a Top 5 pick)

ON THE CLOCK NEXT WEEK: NFC South

Coming Soon: Team by Team Draft Previews

Hey everybody!

I wanted to take a second to thank everybody who took a few minutes out of their busy holiday season to check out  my Bowl previews.  I had much more traffic and pageviews than I ever could have imagined. 

To keep up the “preview” vein, I decided I’m going to put together team by team draft previews.

I’ll give each division it’s own week.  First, will be a quick rundown of the teams’ top picks, their needs and some players they may target.  Additionally, I’ll put together a few pieces regarding some of the Draft storylines surrounding the division.

Please check back regularly to see who’s up next and when I’ll be releasing my 4thand18 Mock Draft (about the beginning of March).

The NFC East is on the clock…

The Best and Worst of the Bowl Season

Here’s my rendition of the Grammy’s or Tony’s or whatever your favorite award show is.  I may not have a celebrity host, but who cares, I have the best and the worst of the 2009 bowl season.

• BEST BOWL NAME: Tostitos Fiesta Bowl…  Nothing says party quite like Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (literally in Spanish!).  In an era where we have ridiculous sponsorships and “presented by” relationships, it’s refreshing that this one is actually synergistic.  The name makes sense and it just sounds good.  Also, it helps that it’s a BCS bowl and has the aura of the 2007 Boise State comeback.
• WORST BOWL NAME: Tie, AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl and the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl…  Anybody else notice how annoying it is to read the ESPN bottomline when you have to deal with the 39-syllable names of some of these bowls?  For me, it’s totally unnecessary.  AdvoCare could have taken out the V100 part; c’mon, still nobody has any idea what the sell.  And the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl, do I even have to say anything?  I may be acting like a fourteen year old, but Gaylord Hotels would have to double anybody else’s offer to sponsor the game if I were to slap their name all over my game.
• BIGGEST UPSET: Air Force over Houston…  Houston isn’t a Top 10 team, but at one point they were a BCS busting contender.  They had an incredible offense and embarrassed a whole bunch of teams.  I didn’t believe in Air Force’s defense, but they showed up and shut down Case Keenum.
• BEST TIMED GAME: Rose Bowl (1/1, 4:30pm)…  The Rose Bowl is an historic game and is surrounded by tons of tradition.  I’m glad they haven’t messed with the formula.  There’s a reason it’s one of the most watched games, and that’s the timing of it.  For  most of us, New Years Day is a day of rest and recuperation, so when we wake up at 3pm, we have plenty of time to eat and get the leftover chips before kickoff.  The other New years Day games are either too early (still asleep) or too late (cuts into more party time).
• WORST TIMED GAME: GMAC Bowl (1/6, 7pm)…  This game gets the negative mark for me for two reasons.  First, it starts at 7pm, not the usual 8pm.  It’s just to early for most people to get home, eat dinner and relax.   I wasn’t able to get this game on the television until mid-2nd quarter.  Secondly, the game is timed as if it were an appetizer for the National Championship game.  It really isn’t.  We did get a great game between CMU and Troy this year, but honestly, they deserve to be playing in late December, not the day before the Championship.
• BEST ENDING TO A GAME: Humanitarian Bowl (Bowling Green vs. Idaho)…  We had a bunch of great games this year, but none had the climax like this one.  Idaho and Bowling Green were locked in a high scoring game.  After Idaho drove down the field at the end of the fourth quarter, down by a TD, everyone had to be expecting overtime.  Neither defense could stop the other’s offense, so I presumed Idaho would score easily.  They did.  And for that exact reason, they went for the two point conversion and the win.  They got it and marched off the field the winners.
• BEST GAME: GMAC Bowl (Central Michigan 44, Troy 41 OT)…  While this game wasn’t timed perfectly, it certainly had the perfect mixture of fun and suspense.  CMU had to comeback late in the game to take the lead, 34-31.  Troy, with just over a minute, was able to drive the field and kick a game-tying field goal.  Overtime saw two touchdowns and then a CMU field goal to win it in the second overtime period.  Great game.
• WORST GAME: Holiday Bowl (Nebraska 33, Arizona 0)…  I was really looking forward to this game; I’m glad I didn’t change around my life plans to watch it.  Arizona’s offense never had a chance against Nebraska’s stout defense.
• WORST LETDOWN OF A GAME: Sugar Bowl (Florida vs. Cincinnati)…  I had huge expectations for this game too, hoping for a great one.  Turns out that Cincinnati’s defense is rough and that the SEC has the two best teams in the country.  The game was never close, Florida just totally outplayed them.
• BEST DRAFT STOCK INCREASE: Ole Miss RB/WR Dexter McCluster (34 carries, 184 yards, 2 TDs; 5 receptions, 45 yards)…  I love Dexter McCluster, he reminds me of Percy Harvin.  He has the ability to run the ball and also to be a breakout receiver.  The difference though, is that McCluster can take inside handoffs rather than just outside tosses, end arounds or reverses.  Nothing cemented this more than McCluster’s 34 carries.  If there were any doubts of his ability to be an every down rusher he answered the call.
• WORST DRAFT STOCK DECREASE: Georgia Tech WR Demaryius Thomas (0 receptions)…  From the start, Georgia Tech was outclassed by Iowa’s defense.  Demaryius Thomas, who announced his NFL Draft eligibility, couldn’t have had a worse showcase game.  He had decent numbers in 2009, but one could argue that he was a product of the triple option offense.  Add in the fact that  he’s the only legitimate receiving target on the team, and you have a pulsating red warning light.  I’m not questioning his talent, just his timing.  He needed a good Orange bowl to ensure he was a good pick.
• BEST GATORADE SHOWER: Nick Saban…  Just before the end of the game, two Alabama players rushed towards Coach Saban with the requisite Gatorade cooler.  He wasn’t prepared and he got nailed.  It looked as if the shower actually hurt.  Saban isn’t one to show his emotions, but he really didn’t look happy. 

• BEST INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCES:

1. WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Green: 17 receptions, 219 yards, 3 TDs
2. QB Tim Tebow, Florida: 31-35, 482 yards,  3 TDs, 0 INTs; 51 rush yards, 1 TD
3. QB Ricky Dobbs, Navy: 130 pass yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs; 166 rush yards, 3 TDs
4. RB Mike Ford, USF: 207 rush yards, 1 TD

• WORST INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCES:

1. QB Case Keenum, Houston: 222 yards, 1 TD, 6 INTs
2. QB Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State: 13-31, 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INTs
3. Miami(FL) RBs: Graig Cooper (5 attempts, 29 yards), Damien Berry (4, 29), Javarris James (4, 1)
4. QB Sean Canfield, Oregon State: 19-40, 168 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT

National Championship Preview

Texas vs Alabama

1/7, 8:30pm, ESPN

We’re finally here…  The National Championship game is upon us, and I think it’ll be an epic game.  Both teams play superb defense; Alabama is ranked #2 nationally while Texas is a close third.  Also, each team has a superstar on offense; Texas has QB Colt McCoy while Alabama has Heisman winning RB Mark Ingram.  No matter how hard the offense play, though, I think this game will come down to the defenses.

While Texas is on the field, they rely on McCoy’s smart decision making.  He’s thrown only 12 INTs to 27 TDs and completes over 70% of his passes (70.5% to be exact).  I know he won’t be mistake free against ‘Bama, but his stat line is reassuring.  McCoy is also the team’s second leading rusher with 348 yards and 3 TDs.  McCoy has enjoyed sustained success, having 5 300-yard games and a TD pass in all but his last game against Nebraska.  When Texas decides to run the ball, it goes to either Tre Newton or Cody Johnson.  Newton leads in the yards department (513) but has half the number of touchdowns that Johnson has (6 to 12).  Newton was limited in four games and missed two completely, I expect him to get the lion’s share of the carries though tonight.  Watch out for Johnson near the goalline.  WR Jordan Shipley is the go-to-guy for Colt McCoy.  Shipley has 106 receptions for 1,363 yards and 11 touchdowns.  He has six 100-yard games and has a high of 273 yards against UCF.  James Kirkendoll is also a factor on the otuside (48, 461, 6).  The defense is led by safeties Earl Thomas (57 tackles, 8 INTs and 2 defensive TDs) and Blake Gideon (5 INTs).  Also keep an eye on Sam Acho; he has 49 tackles and 7 sacks from the defensive end.

Alabama’s offensive strength is the rushing game.  RB Mark Ingram won the Heisman trophy (I’m not convinced he deserved it, but that’s another article) and racked up big numbers.  Ingram has 1,542 yards and 15 TDs this season.  More impressisve to me, though, is his 6.2 yards per rush average.  Think about that: in general, if you hand it to Ingram every play, you’ll never hit third down.  Ingram had eight 100-yard games and hit 246 against South Carolina.  The WRs aren’t amazing, but they do have tons of potential.  Last year, Julio Jones was a surprise as a freshman, but this year he hasn’t seen great numbers due to the rushing emphasis.  Jones finished with 42 grabs for 573 yards and 4 TDs.  Marquis Maze is their deep threat (averaging over 17 yards per catch) and has 30 catches for 519 and 2 TDs.  Ingram is also a factor in the passing game with 30 receptions for 322 yards and 3 TDs.  Throwing these guys the ball is QB Greg McElroy.  McElroy is a steady game manager who hasn’t been asked to do a lot.  He has only thrown 4 INTs, so he doesn’t make many mistakes.  He totaled 2,450 yards and 17 TDs; solid numbers but not great.  The defense, impenetrable at times, is led by LB Rolando McClain.  McClain is a jack of all trades; he has 101 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, 4 sacks and 2 INTs.  In front of him is space-eater DT Terrence Cody.  Cody, like most DTs other than Ndamukong Suh, doesn’t put up great numbers, but he occupies blockers to free up his teammates.  Cody measures in at 6′5″ and 354 lbs.

I kind of wish this game would be high scoring, because let’s be honest, high scoring games are usually more fun to wtach.  Either way it’ll be enjoyable.  There’s tons of NFL-worthy talent on display so keep an eye on anybody who is a junior or senior (I’ll be watching McCoy, McClain and Cody mostly).  This is the biggest showcase game of them all and could seriously impact somebody’s draft stock.  Ultimately, I think Texas’ passing attack will be too much for the Tide to overcome.  Mark Ingram is just one man, and cannot shoulder the offense on every snap.  The Texas secondary is an interception machine, so I expect McElroy to finish with at least 4 INTs.  Colt McCoy will improve his draft status with a 300 yard, 3 TD game; Jordan Shipley will eclipse 10 receptions.  I think Ingram will be solid (about 100 yards) but late in the game when they’re down, he’ll be limited.  I’ll go with Texas in a close one.

Prediction:  Texas 24, Alabama 16

GMAC Bowl Preview

Central Michigan vs Troy

1/6, 7:00pm, ESPN
(Rank: 25)

I’m not really sure why they play the GMAC Bowl right before the National Championship and after every other game.  I’m not sure if the bowl officials think it adds publicity and visibility, but I think it makes a mockery of the game.  In December, we all expect mid-level bowls and will generally watch them anyway hoping for a fun game rather than a good game.  But after January 1st, we’ve seen the best of the BCS conferences play and are in final preparation for the National Championship.  I think this game, which will be entertaining, would be better served a week ago.

This game’s best feature will be the quarterback matchup that pits CMU’s Dan LeFevour against Troy’s Levi Brown.  LeFevour is s another dual threat quarterback who could make a living at the next level carving up defenses.   LeFevour passed for 3,043 yards while rushing for 701.  Combined, LeFevour accounted for an unprecedented 41 total TDs.  With such a stud as LeFevour, the rushing game lacks for the running backs.  The best back, Bryan Schroeder (486 yards, 5 TDs) has 356 of those yards and 4 TDs since he returned from injury with four games left in the season.  He averages 5.6 yards per carry, so when he does get the ball he’s reliable.  CMU has potentially the best WR duo in the country.  Leading receiver Antonio Brown is a reception machine, grabbing 97 balls this season for 1,020 yards.  Brown has a total of 13 TDs (9 receiving, 2 rushing, 2 return).  Opposite him is senior WR Bryan Anderson (57, 700, 6).  Anderson is suffering (if you could call those numbers suffering) through his worst statistical season yet as a four-year starter.  The defense is decent, allowing just 17.2 points per game, but does play in the weak MAC, so who knows how they would fair against top offenses.  The defense is led by a pair of LBs, Nick Bellone and Matt Berning.  They both reached the 100 tackle milestone, 118 and 100 respectively.

On the other sideline, Troy QB Levi Brown is the ringleader.  Brown is a prolific passer, but not a runner as LeFevour is.  Brown is just shy of 4,000 yards and could surpass that i tn the bowl game; right now, he has 3,868 yards.  Brown’s 22 TDs are good but would be higher if he had higher quality WRs.  Brown has enjoyed seven 300-yard passing games and three of those extending past 400 yards.  When he’s not tossing the ball around, he’s handing it off to RBs Shawn Southward (574 yards, 10 TDs) and Dejuan Harris (471, 8).  Southward, a freshman, isn’t featured often, but in the three games he was given at least 10 carries, he rushed for a total of 327 yards.  Junior Dejuan Harris was a 1,000 yard rusher last year, but has had to share the spotlight this year.  Brown’s favorite targets on the outside are Jerrel Jernigan and Tebarius Gill.  Jernigan caught 62 balls for 947 yards and 4 TDs; Jernigan’s best game went for 13 catches, 203 yard and a touchdown against Louisiana-Monroe.  Gill has 44 catches for 553 yards and 6 TDs.  The defense is lacking, ranking just 100th in the nation.  Their best shot at getting a game changing play is from CB Bryan Willis who has 64 tacckles, 4 INTs and a kick return touchdown.

Going into this preview, I figured it would be a quick look, but it turned out that there were a lot of offensive angles to be covered.  As I mentioned, Troy’s defense is bad, so I can’t predict they’ll finally turn it around against a star like LeFevour.  I’m not sure if Troy will play the run or the pass, so it’s tough to say in which way LeFevour will flourish, but he will.  He will go for 300 total yards and 3 combined TDs.  Expect the Chippewas to make sure Antonio Brown gets to 100 receptions, one of them for a TD.  Also, Schroeder will continue his late run (pun intended), rushing for about 100 yards and a TD.  Levi Brown will be Troy’s lone bright spot on offense, about 200 yards and 2 TDs.  It’ll be an all out points fest, so enjoy it for what it is.

Prediction:  Central Michigan 41, Troy 28, hoping for a fun

Orange Bowl Preview

Iowa vs Georgia Tech

1/5, 8:00pm, FOX
(Rank: 10)

The least attractive BCS game, the Orange Bowl, as usual, throws us a mediocre matchup.  Iowa and Georgia Tech are mid-level BCS schools at best.  I’ll be watching though, mostly to watch the explosive Georgia Tech triple option offense.

In the past, Iowa was a rush-first team but this year with the Jewel Hampton injury, QB Ricky Stanzi has had to shoulder the burden.  He has played decent, but throws too many INTs (14 to just 15 TDs) and doesn’t complete enough passes (just 56.6%).  He’s missed the last two games, butwill play against GA Tech.  Two freshmen RBs have filled in well for Hampton.  Combined, Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher have 1,303 yards and 12 TDs.  WR Marvin McNutt is the Hawkeyes biggest deep threat, having 30 catches for 653 yards, 7 TDs and an amazing 21.8 yard per reception average.  Derrell Johnson-Koulianos is a more traditonal receiver and has 16 catches and 197 yards over the last three games.  The Hawkeyes have the tenth ranked defense in the NCAA and are led by three players.  DE Adrian Clayborn leads the team with 9..5 sacks.  LB Pat Angerer (by the way, the best name for a LB ever) has an incredible 135 taclkes on the season.  S Tyler Sash has 6 INTs.

The Yellow Jackets’ triple option offense is led, unequivocally, by QB Josh Nesbitt.  Nesbitt has decent numbers passing (1,689 yards and 10 TDs) but is best on the run.  Nesbitt has 991 yards rushing and 18 TDs.  Nesbitt has at least one touchdown (either passing or rushing) in all but one game.  The leading RB is Jonathan Dwyer who rushed for 1,346 yards and 14TDs.  Dwyer has a great 6.1 yards per rush average; impressive considering how many total attempts he has.  Dwyer has reached the 100-yard milestone in seven games, 150 yards in three games and five multi-TD games.  Anthony Allen is the team’s second RB option and has 597 yards and 5 TDs.  WR Demaryius Thomas is the only player on the team with double-digit catches.  He’s capitalized on his reception monopoly by amassing 1,154 yards and 8 TDs.  He has four 100-yard games and scored his touchdowns in eight separate games.  The defense, ranked a low 52nd, is led by DE Derrick Morgan.  Morgan has 18 tackles for loss and 12 sacks.  He’ll be a Top 15 draft pick in 2010.  S Morgan Burnett is an impact player also with 77 tackles and 4 INTs.

It’s tough to say which will prevail: the Iowa defense or the Georgia Tech defense.  With a month to prepare, I’ll have to assume the Hawkeyes will be prepared for the triple option.  If they are able to stay patient and stay in their defensive lanes, they’ll prevail. Iowa runs a pro-style offense that can withstand the rigors of a slow, methodical, rush heavy game.  I look for Robinson and Wegher to combine for 150 yards and 2 TDs.  Stanzi will play solidly, but will have some bad throws.  I don’t think Georgia Tech’s defense is good enough to capitalize though.  Marvin McNutt will provide the game-winning spark in the fourth quarter that seals the victory.Iwowa

Prediction:  Iowa 22, Georgia Tech 17