Armed Forces Bowl Preview
December 30, 2009 Leave a comment
12/31, 12:00pm, ESPN
(Rank: 14)
The best player on the field Thursday will be Houston QB Case Keenum. Keenum has set (or is close to setting) most major passing records in NCAA history. Brace yourself for these numbers: 5,449 yards passing, 43 TDs, 9 INTs and a 71% completion percentage. Keenum’s lowest passing total was 223 against SMU (who shut down the potent Nevada offense in their bowl matchup) and his highest was 589 against Southern Miss. Keenum had four 5 TD games and didn’t finish any game with 0 TDs. Add in his 4 rushing TDs and you have quite a player. If it weren’t for the negative connotation that “spread” offenses have nowadays in the NCAA, when it comes to the Heisman race, Keenum could have made an argument for being the best player in 2009. With Keenum slinging it around, you’d expect a slew of receivers with good numbers; they have 6 different guys with 30+ catches. James Cleveland is their best with 101 receptions, 1,182 yards and 14 TDs; Cleveland also has five 100-yard games including 190 against Southern Miss (on 13 receptions) and a whopping 241 yards against ECU (on 19 receptions). Along with him are Tyron Carrier (86, 998, 7) and Patrick Edwards (81, 985, 5). The RBs are solid but don’t get a ton of work. Bryce Beall has 667 yards and 7 TDs and Charles Sims has 632 yards and 9 TD. The defense isn’t much for Houston (ranked 108th nationally) but that doesn’t matter when you can score 90.
Air Force, who is traditionally an undersized group, rely on a shifty, zone-blocking running scheme (much like Navy’s and Georgia Tech’s). Air Force, who cannot just go out and recruit big hogs to play football, has to rely on quick and smart offensive lineman. These types of lineman aren’t conducive to pass blocking, and it shows. Between the two QBs who eshave seen significant time this year, Tim Jefferson and Conor Dietz, there have only been 8 TD passes. At RB (or WB and FB, which are the terms in their offense) is where you see the most action. FB Jared Tew is the leading rusher with 797 yards and 7 TDs. He only averages 3.9 yards per carry, so he is the pounding, short yardage back. WBs Asher Clark and Savier Stephens rushed for 736 and 417 yards, respectively, and totaled 8 TDs. They average more than 5 yards per carry, so look for them when a dynamic play is needed. Air Force has the 10th ranked defense in the country, but I think that is a result of their offense, rather than a testament to their defensive talent. Air Force has just 732 plays against, compared to the stout Nebraska defense seeing 904; I attribute this to the time of possession the triple option commands. With less plays against, logic follows that they would have less yards and points allowed. To illustrate this, note that Air Force has allowed 22 TDs when the 28th ranked defense, LSU, has allowed just 18 TDs; even with less plays against, they still allow a lot of scoring. I’m not saying their defense is bad, but their numbers are inflated by the amount of time the offense steals from the opposition.
It’s tough picking against Air Force, or any service academy, but I have to. Case Keenum and that explosive Houston offense is unstoppable. I’ll bet that Air Force will slow them down at some points, but over the course of 60 minutes, it’s near impossible to stop that many talented players. Much like Bowling Green’s passing offense relied upon RB Willie Geter for their clutch plays, I think Bryce Beall will flash his talent in this one. I expect Beall to steal two TDs, and help Keenum post some huge numbers from the screen game. Keenum will finish with at least 4 TDs and 400 yards, possibly more.
