Insight Bowl Preview

Minnesota vs Iowa State

12/31, 6:00pm, NFL Network
(Rank: #31)

Snoozer alert.

I’m not a fan of the 6-6 teams being bowl eligible, and this is why.  Each year, we invariably get stuck with a game like this that doesn’t have much to talk about.  Luckily it’s on the NFL Network and most people won’t have to suffer the horrors of stumbling across the action.

Okay, I’ll stop being so mean.

Minnesota’s offense relied heavily on Eric Decker before he was lost for the season a month ago.  Decker, who has NFL dreams, caught 50 passes for 758 yards and 5 TDs in the eight games he did play in.  If he was playing in this game, I would have tuned in to check out his play and if he improves his future draft stock.  With Decker out, the best player on offense for the Gophers is QB Adam Weber (2,321 passing yards).  Weber is shaky, and that’s partially attributed to the loss of Decker.  Weber who threw 12 TDs, also threw 14 INTs and only completed 51.6% of his passes.  RB is a dicey situation also.  The leading rusher is Duanne Bennett (376 yards, 6 TDs) but freshman Kevin Whaley (325, 2) has come on strong as well and will still carries.  Things don’t get much better on defense where Minnesota is ranked 61st in total defense.

The offense is a little better for Iowa State, but the defense is worse.  Iowa State’s defense ranks 94th nationally.  They do have one stud, though, in senior LB Jesse Smith.  Smith led the Big 12 in tackles with 128 and also has 2 INTs.  Dual threat QB Austen Arnaud leads the offense: 1,799 yards passing, 485 yards rushing, 20 Total TDs.  When looking at Arnaud’s numbers, also note that he missed two games, so he could have been over 2,000 yards passing and 500 yards rushing.  With defenses focusing on Arnaud, RB Alexander Robinson is able to find open holes; he has 1,058 yards and 6 TDs on the season.  He consistently wins on first down, averaging 5.0 yards per carry.  Robinson’s best game, in my opinion, came against Iowa; the Hawkeyes had shut down the Cyclones but Robinson was still able to pound away for 100 yards.  The Cyclones’ offense ranks 36th in overall rushing but 97th in overall passing.  So, the key to their offense is definitely the ground game with Arnaud and Robinson.

When both teams come into the game at 6-6 with no noticeable momentum, it’s pretty much a toss up.  Minnesota’s best player will not be playing in the Insight Bowl, so that gives the iffy Iowa State defense some help.  Minnesota’s rush defense is 64th in the country, so I think Arnaud and Robinson will be able to have their way.  Arnaud is tricky because he makes mistakes when passing (11 INT to just 13 TDs), but I think he will be the player of note in this one.  Arnaud will account for about 300 yards of total offense and at least two scores.  Robinson will be right behind him.

Prediction: Iowa State 33, Minnesota 24