Gimme Five: A Few (Very) Early NFL Draft Thoughts

My television spends an inordinate amount of time on the ESPN networks, especially around college bowl time.  I’ve noticed a welcome addition to their Bottom Line when noting the bowl games: draft projections.  I bet a lot of people haven’t noticed; either because it’s too soon or maybe they don’t care who the #48 ranked WR is (in related news, I can’t tell you who it is because ESPN wants me to subscribe to ESPN the Magazine in order to get Insider access, and I don’t want the damn magazine).  Well I have noticed, and I have some adjustments that I think should be made.

 

Overrated

Mark Ingram (ESPN Scouts Inc. Overall #24): There’s no denying that Ingram is skilled, but I just don’t see him 1) as a First Round pick, and 2) as a starter in the NFL.  I’m sure I’m in the minority on this, but I just don’t see it in Ingram.  Maybe what I’ve seen of him through his career were “bad” games, maybe, but I’m going with my gut.  When it comes to competing in the NFL, it’s a day to day grind that pits you against some of the best athletes in the world (not Duke, against who he rushed for 151 yards [17% of his season total] and 2 TDs on a 16.8 yards per carry average). Ingram would have benefited had he been able to come out last year (too bad for that communist 3-year rule, right Maurice Clarett?) after his monster 1,658 yard, 17 TD season.  His total numbers are down this year (875 yards, 13 TDs) although he still has a high yards per carry average of 5.5 yards.  I think Ingram would fit nicely with a team who wants to employ a two-back scheme.  My prediction for him is #33 to Carolina.

Justin Blackmon (#25):  Justin Blackmon has more talent in his right big toe than I have in my entire body.  I know that.  I admit that.  I don’t think his talent is overrated, but I question is intangibles.  Blackmon lit the Big 12 on fire (he was the first WR selected as Player of the Year) with 111 receptions for 1,782 yards and 20 TDs.  Those are incredible numbers, no doubt, but what about 2009 when Dez Bryant was suspended for a majority of the season?  Blackmon had 20 catches for 260 yards and 2 TDs; hardly mouth watering statistics.  When he was given the opportunity in 2009, Blackmon had 4 or less catches every game and did not have any plays longer than 32 yards.  I would argue that new coordinator Dana Holgorsen’s (headed to WVU after one season) scheme led to Blackmon’s explosion and fear that some NFL team may being buying blind.  For all of you that I haven’t swayed yet, how about this story: In October, Blackmon was arrested for speeding (30+ MPH over the speed limit) and DUI (he’s only 20 years old, so any BAC is against the law).  Blackmon was visiting former teammate and current Cowboy, Dez Bryant, and had three other people in the car with him.  To me, this suggests an immaturity that could get you in trouble in the NFL.  Unfortunately for Blackmon, I’m not sure I see a spot for him at the end of the First Round.  Many of the teams don’t need a WR (Eagles, Saints, Jets, Ravens) and most of the others wouldn’t take a chance on a guy of questionable character (Colts, Steelers, Falcons).  I’m left with the Chiefs, Packers and Patriots who may take a shot on Blackmon.

 

Underrated

Ryan Mallett (#31): With Andrew Luck committing to Stanford and staying for another season, I would make Mallett my number one, NFL-ready quarterback.  Mallett doesn’t have the athleticism of Jake Locker (#23) or Cam Newton (#29), but I’m not convinced either one of them can make all of the NFL throws.  Mallett, in my eyes, has a Brett Favre type arm.  He’s strong and gets the ball to the receivers quick.  In 2009, Mallett’s biggest downfall was his accuracy (55.8% completion percentage), but he improved upon that in 2010 by almost 10% (64.7%).  If he fell somewhere in the middle, he could be a solid starting QB in the NFL.  Mallett had 9 300-yard games in 2010 and 5 in 2009.  In my mind, he’s the best QB in the SEC, by far.  NFL scouts will love his size (over an inch taller than Newton and about 30 pounds heavier than Locker); at just under 6’7″, Mallett is even bigger than “Big” Ben Roethlisberger.  Depending on the ruler (which magically vary in length depending on who is holding them around Draft time), he may be the tallest QB after he’s drafted, right next to Joe Flacco and Derek Anderson.  With Luck off the board, and questions about Newton’s and Locker’s NFL readiness, I think Mallett will go much higher than his #31 rating.   I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals (#5), 49ers (#7), Titans (#8) or Redskins (#10) interested in Mallett.

Julio Jones (#17): I’ve liked Julio Jones since his freshman season and think he’s a close second to the top ranked WR, AJ Green (#5 overall).  His stats aren’t as eyepopping as Justin Blackmon’s, but I don’t care.  For me, Jones passes the eye test.  I’ve heard some analyst, I think from the NFL Network, describe guys as a man, and I think Julio Jones fits that description.  He bounced back from a sub-par sophomore season (43 receptions, 596 yards and 4 TDs) with a much better 2010 (78, 1133, 7).  I should probably mention that during that sub-par sophomore campaign, Jones was the leading WR on the National Champion Alabama team, which certainly adds some weight.  Given the chance, I think Jones can showcase is amazing consistency.  In games in which he played (he missed only one game in his three seasons), Jones was held to zero catches just once, against South Carolina and to one catch just four times.  I think Jones makes a lot of sense for the Redskins (#10) and the Rams (#14).

 

Honorable Mentions

As you repeat readers know, I’m a huge Michigan fan and end up spending a lot of time watching Big Ten football.  There are two guys that have stood out to me all season and really proved themselves in their bowl game performance.  The first guy to keep an eye on is Cameron Heyward.  Heyward’s stats aren’t as impressive as he is in my aforementioned “eye test” but they aren’t too shabby.  Heyward totaled 48 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.  Heyward has a great motor (I’m sorry I said that, I hate when Draft analysts say that) and can play any of the DL positions effectively.  In the Sugar Bowl, Heyward had 6 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and 1 sack.  JJ Watt of Wisconsin is another versatile DL propsect that will fit great in an NFL defense.  If you’re not seated, you should probably take a seat before reading Watt’s statistics.  I promise they are impressive.  In 2010, Watt totaled 61 tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 7 pass break ups, 1 INT and THREE blocked kicks.  I think Watt fits best as a DE in a 4-3 scheme, but I can also see his athleticism (he was originally a TE) making him a viable 3-4 rush end.

Gimme Five! Fantasy Football Week 8

Five to Start:

QB: Vince Young: The preseason Vegas odds on Young being a “start” in the fantasy world would have been astronomical.  Had I taken that bet, I would have been a rich man.  The Jaguars defense is far from stout; they gave up 41 points to a perennially banged up Seahawks team.  The Jaguars are ranked 31st in passing defense, allowing 262 yards per game and opposing QBs are averaging a 99.3 rating.  Young obviously isn’t a great dropback, sling it around kind of quarterback, but I think he can mirror those numbers.   19-29, 230 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 35 yards rushing

RB: LT: Not that you needed a statistic to believe me, but the Raiders rushing defense is 30th in the league and has given up a league leading 11 rushing TDs.  I know LT splits carries with Darren Sproles, but Norv Turner showed last week that he’s still dedicated to getting LT the ball.  LT hasn’t been a factor in the passing game yet, I expect that to change.  Much like coordinators try to get a few quick easy passes to get a QB comfortable, this game could be that for LT’s season.    27 carries, 4 receptions, 120 total yards, 1 Total TD

WR: Devin Hester: In the last two games, Hester has a total of 14 catches and 180+ yards.  The best part about those catches is that they came against pretty good teams in Atlanta (not the best pass defense, but still average) and Cincinnati.  This week the Bears play home against the Browns who are 24th against the pass and I think that is inflated by the fact that they are even worse against the run so teams can shut down the passing game after two quarters.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Hester can break loose for two huge touchdowns.    4 catches, 155 yards, 2 TD

TE: Owen Daniels: It’s tough to argue with Daniels’ production this season.  On most fantasy teams, he would be a solid WR1; be happy you can start him at TE and still play all your WRs.  The Bills are better than they are getting credit for (10th in pass defense) but I expect the Texans to run up the score.  If Ryan Fitzpatrick starts for the Bills again, it could turn into a shootout (Trent Edwards doesn’t throw it deep often enough).   5 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD

K/Def: Cardinals: The Cards are middle of the road as far as *reality* defense, but this week,their *fantasy* defense should excel.  Word is that Jake Delhomme will start, so that means it could be a field day for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and the secondary.  The Panthers are allowing just over 2 sacks per game and the Cardinals have above average pass rushers (Calais Campbell and Bertrand Berry both with 3 sacks).  4 sacks, 3 INT, 17 points allowed

Five to Sit:

QB: Matt Ryan: I have Matt Ryan on my main fantasy team, and unfortunately, I think this is the first matchup where you need to sit him.  The Saints defense is surprisingly good and has wreaked havoc on opposing passing games.  They lead the league in INTs with 13 and opposing quarterbacks have an average passer rating of 54.6.  I don’t think Ryan wil be that bad, but he won’t be good.     18-34, 175 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

RB: Frank Gore: As I told one of my friends, and opposing fantasy owners, last week: don’t start Frank Gore!  Gore had two big games to start the year before getting hurt, but isn’t great right now.  Of Gore’s 273 yards this year, 159 of them (58%) came on two runs against the Seahawks.  For me, that doesn’t inspire confidence.  He had a solid game against the Cardinals to open the year but struggled against the Texans last week.  I hope I end up being wrong as far as the entire season is concerned since I picked the 49ers to make the playoffs, but I don’t see it happening with the 48ers trying to come back against the Colts.  32 carries, 2 receptions, 65 total yards, 0 TD

WR: Miles Austin: The buzz pickup of the last few weeks just can’t duplicate his recent output.  I love Miles Austin.  I’m a Cowboys fan and my best friend went to Monmouth with him, but I’m a realist.  Austin is flirting with history and it’s just too good to be true.  He won’t get shutout because the Seahawks suck, but anybody who picked him up expecting the ride to continue may be disappointed.  5 catches, 65 yards, 0 TD

TE: Jason Witten: As I mentioned above, I’m low on the Seahawks defense, so why would I sit Witten?  I just don’t think that he’ll get many opportunities.  The running game should prosper and the outside receivers should do decent.  At times, the Cowboys offensive weapons suffer because there is only one ball and three downs to distribute it.  5 catches, 30 yards, 0 TD

K/Def: Raiders: The Chargers are out to prove they can hang with the Broncos and aren’t  second class citizens in the AFC West.  I expect them to run all over the Raiders and capitalize in the pass game when the Raiders try to load the box.  38 points allowed, 3 sacks, 0 INT

Gimme Five! Fantasy Football Week 7

Busy, busy weekend, so unfortunately I can’t devote my usual three-four hours of research for my fantasy football starts/sits.  Here’s a quick look at who I think wil be the best and worst of the week.  Longer explanations and analysis will be back next week.

Five to Start:

QB: Chad Henne:  It’s not a great week for quarterbacks.  Flacco, Orton, Garrard and Hasselbeck, most likely on teams especially in deep leagues, are on byes.  Add in the fact that of the six bye teams, five of those defense are 17th or worst.  Basically, my point is: there are fewer to start than in past weeks and some of the worst passing defenses aren’t playing to take advantage of.   17-31, 250 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

RB: Thomas Jones: The Jets are playing in Oakland this week and TJ gets to rush against the 28th ranked defense.  He wonn’t duplicate last week’s rush total, but look for three touchdowns.    22 carries, 2 receptions, 145 total yards, 3 Total TD

WR: Michael Crabtree: Crabtree won’t make anyone forget about Jerry Rice anytime soon, but he is available in a ton of Yahoo! leagues (last time I checked he was only 60% owned).  Don’t expect much right away, but he could be a steal of a #1 WR if he can develop quickly.  I’d expect San Fran to try and feature him this week, especially in the red zone where his size matters.   5 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD

TE: Jason Witten: The Falcons have the 21st ranked passing defense, so i’m looking for Witten to get free for some yards.  With the Cowboys full complement of RBs back, I’m not expecting any TDs though.  8 catches, 95 yards, 0 TD

K/Def: Packers:   I picked the Pack’s defense last week against the Lions and they rewarded me with a ton of points in my main league.  This week the Browns come to town.  Should be more of the same for the takeaway happy Packers.  6 sacks, 2 INT, 6 points allowed

Five to Sit:

QB: Kurt Warner: As I mentioned, most owners won’t have the luxury of starting a backup this week, or finding suitable depth on the waiver wire, so you may have to start Warner, but don’t expect much.  Somehow, the Giants patchwork secondary has put up great numbers and are sitting in first against the pass.  Granted, they were torched last week, but it just shows you how good they were in their first five games that they are still #1.  Expect a lot of completions, but less ayrds and TDs than you normally expect.  32-46, 225 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

RB: Steven Jackson: Jackson still has yet to find the endzone, and until he does, he’s probably not worth a start in touchdown-heavy leagues.  He does rack up the yards and is valuable in the pass game, but for me he’s gotta score before I start him again.  28 carries, 4 receptions, 80 total yards, 0 TD

WR: Santana Moss: Moss had two huge games a few weeks ago, so he is probably still  owned in your league, but I would stay away if I was his owner.  With the uncertainty in the Skins playcalling (Jim Zorn lost the job, retired Sherman Lewis was hired away from a community center; you can’t make that up) and the strong Philly defense, Moss coud be shut down.  3 catches, 35 yards, 0 TD

TE: Visanthe Shiancoe: Shiancoe has been hit or miss so far this season.  In his first three games he had 6 catches for 49 yards; in his second three games he’s had 11 catches for 115 yards and 4 TDs. Against the Pitt defense, I’ll pick him to go back in form.  3 catches, 21 yards, 0 TD

K/Def: Raiders: Since the Titans are on the bye, I cannot pick against them this week, oh well.  The Jets have something to prove to all their naysayers, so the Raiders should be careful.  I would not be surprised if the Jets came out firing and threw the kitchen sink at the Raiders defense.  31 points allowed, 2 sacks, 0 INT

Gimme Five! Fantasy Football Week 6

Not sure who to start and who to sit?  I’m here to help!

Five to Start:

QB: Tom Brady: You’d think that Brady would be one of the no-brainer starters that I try to stay away from in this column, but I think he deserves a mention here.  The Patriots have come under a bit of fire in the media so far this year because their offense isn’t on fire like it was in 2007.  To those who hem and haw about Brady’s let down after the injury, I’d like to remind you that before 2007, he never threw for 30 TD in a season (his high was 28).  For that reason, I think a lot of fantasy owners are down on Brady this year.  He’s playing the oft-embarassed Titans defense (ranked 31st) in Week 6, so expect some numbers.  Add in the fact that Wes Welker finally looks 100% healthy.    28-43, 360 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

RB: Cedric Benson: The Texans defense has many talented players but for whatever reason, they can’t seem to put it together.  They rank 26th in rushing defense and are allowing just over 140 yards per game.  I’m not so sure that the NFL would consider him for it, but doesn’t Benson look like he could be the Comeback Player of the Year?  He has over 500 total yards and has found the endzone three times.  Too bad he isn’t more of a factor in the passing game; he loses a lot of 3rd down and late game touches to Brian Leonard.     17 carries, 2 receptions, 165 total yards, 2 Total TD

WR: Hines Ward: Hines Ward is 2nd in the NFL in receptions by wide receivers and 3rd in yards.  Anybody who picked him up as your WR2 or WR3 is reaping Ward’s benefits.  Unfortunately, Ward has only one touchdown, but should get another one against the lowly Browns.  Ward has continued value throughout the year, but don’t expect him to keep up his WR1 pace.  Week 6 against the Browns could be the best of the season.  Hope he gets the points early though, because it will be all Mendenhall in the second half.    11 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD

TE: John Carlson: Who knows if the Seahawks offensive explosion against the Jags was a fluke or not, but one thing is for sure, the Cardinals passing defense isn’t any better.  The Cards are dead last in passing yards allowed and are the only team to allow an average of 300 yards or more per game.  I’d expect Matt Hasselbeck to continue distrbuting the ball evenly between Nate Burleson, TJ Houshmanzadeh and Carlson.  5 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

K/Def: Packers:   I feel bad because I always pick on the Lions offense, but it’s a lock of a pick each week.  The Packers should have the visiting Lions on the ropes early, so they’ll be throwing.  A mediocre passing offense can mean only one thing: a field day for the fantasy defense.  Most leagues focus on passing defense statistics like sacks and INTs, so the Packers are a sound choice this week.  4 sacks, 1 forced fumble, 3 INT, 13 points allowed

Five to Sit:

QB: Phillip Rivers: Rivers will always produce, it’s just a question of how much.  The Broncos are 2nd in total defense and 5th in passing defense, so Rivers will find it difficult to move the ball.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not expecting a total shutout for Rivers, but I wouldn’t be surprised for him to be under 200 yards with only 1 TD, hardly Rivers-esque numbers.  With those numbers, you’d be better off starting Mark Sanchez.  Look for him to have a ton of dump-off completions to the RBs and for the INTs to kill him.  25-42, 195 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT

RB: Ray Rice: Rice has become the Ravens top running back, but I’d  be leery of the Vikings defense.  I think they are better than their #14 ranking, and I would caution against starting Rice in anything other than a flex position this week.  So far, the one knock on Rice has been his lack of TDs, and I can’t imagine that changing drastically against Minnesota.  In PPR leagues, he still has good value even if he gets shut down in the run game (23 receptions, 208 yards, 1 TD).  16 carries, 6 receptions, 60 total yards, 0 TD

WR: Mike Sims-Walker: Sims-Walker is, by far, the Jags best WR right now.  Torry Holt isn’t totally washed up, but he’s definitely lost a step.  That being said, Sims-Walker should find some success against the Rams, but once they get a lead they will probably hand it off to MJD to kill clock.   Also, the fact that he was suspeneded for last week’s game due to breaking team rules could rear its ugly head again, who knows.  I’d say there’s a 50/50 shot at him getting a TD, and that’s not good enough for one of my starting WR spots this week.  4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD

TE: Heath Miller: Miller has been a man possessed lately, but I’m not sure he’ll have a great week against the Browns.  Think about it, chances are that the Steelers (like the Jags as I mentioned above) will be up early and will turn to the rushing game to milk the clock.  Also, Miller is more of a redzone or third down threat, and I can’t imagine the Steelers stalling in either situation.  3 catches, 30 yards, 0 TD

K/Def: Tennessee: The Titans defense had a whopping 5 points my main league (1 INT and 1 fumble recovery).  As I mentioned last week, I’m going to keep the Titans here until they prove me wrong.  I think Tom Brady & Co. will have a scrimmage like outing against the Titans defense.  Honestly, they might as well put the red jersey on Brady and play without the linemen like they do in practice.  35 points allowed, 1 sack, 0 INT

Gimme Five! Fantasy Football Week 5

Not sure who to start and who to sit?  I’m here to help!

Five to Start:

QB: Donovan McNabb: With four of the top seven (based on my league’s settings) fantasy quarterbacks on byes this week, you may have to scramble for a replacement.  There’s a slim chance that McNabb could be available in some leagues so get your waiver claim in now.  McNabb is surrounded by talent at all the offensive skill positions and they’re playing the Tampa Bay Bucs who are in the bottom half of the league in most passing statistics.  I can’t argue with anybody who pauses at the fact that McNabb may not be 100% healthy, but it doesn’t scare me.    24-33, 250 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

RB: MJD: The Seattle Seahawks have allowed an average of 124 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry.  I’m expecting MJD to eclipse those numbers and steal the show in Seattle.  MJD is always on the verge of going off for a 3 TD game, while I don’t think this will be one of those, I think his receiving stats will continue making him a dream for PPR owners.   21 carries, 5 receptions, 190 total yards, 1 Total TD

WR: Steve Smith: Unfortnately for me, I traded Steve Smith after his Week 2 explosion against the Cowboys.  I figured I could sell high and get some quality in return since I needed a RB2.  Looks like the joke is on me so far!  With Eli Manning’s health in question, I’d expect him to look for the steady presence of Smith on the short hitch and drag routes that he’s perfected on third down.  Also, if David Carr ends up playing, I wouldn’t expect him to look deep for Manningham or Nicks.     8 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD

TE: Brent Celek: For many of the same reason I mentioned above in the blurb about Donovan McNabb, I’m going to suggest Celek.  Celek has an average of 7 catches and about 80 yards in his first three games.  With the Eagles early bye and the McNabb injury, he’s only owned in 70% of Yahoo! leagues.  If he’s available in your league jump all over him right away.  With the bye out of the way, you can ride him for the rest of the season.  5 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD

K/Def: Steelers:   The Steelers are playing the Lions this weekend, so you know what that means… A bunch of points for the defense.  I don’t think the Lions are as bad as last year, but with Matt Stafford’s knee in question, I can’t see them winning against Pittsburgh.  I don’t think Polamalu will be back yet, but their terrifying LB corps (James Harrison, Lamaarr Woodley, et al) should rack up the sacks and fumbles.  6 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 1 INT, 16 points allowed

Five to Sit:

QB: Kyle Orton: Keeping with the theme of the bye-week-quarterback conundrums, I would advise you to stay away from Kyle Orton.  The NE Patriots pass defense is allowing less than 200 yards per game and less than 60% completion percentage.  Not that Kyle Orton ever inspires much in the way of fantasy confidence, but his stats could convince you otherwise.  Through four games, Orton has yet to throw an INT; that should change this week.  In Yahoo! leagues, he’s available about 50% of the time, and in deep leagues you may be forced to pick him up for the week.  If you must, temper your expectations.  16-33, 195 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 1 fumble

RB: Cedric Benson: Benson’s stats last week were misleading.  He rushed for a respectable 74 yards, but more than half of those were in OT against the tired Browns defense.  I guess I should also mention that the Ravens have the number one rush defense in the league.  On average, they allow a whopping 59 yards, 2.6 yards per carry and about half a touchdown per game.  For all you Benson owners, wait for him to do well against the Texans next week, then sell high because Chicago, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are on the schedule in consecutive games.  27 carries, 2 receptions, 55 total yards, 0 TD

WR: Andre Johnson: Part of me is including AJ here because I’m trading him away in my main league.  His numbers aren’t bad, but he hasn’t been the Texans’ centerpiece yet this year.  If you subtract Week 2 against the Titans, Johnson has 10 catches for 187 yards and 0 touchdowns; hardly top WR numbers.  It’s also important to note that 134 of those yards came on two completions.  He’ll still end the season with good numbers, but I’d say sit him (or at least find another WR1) for the meantime until he proves his worth.  3 catches, 69 yards, 0 TD

TE: Vernon Davis: I’m not huge on Davis for the rest of the season.  For me, he’s more of a matchup starter.  He does have great talent and plays on a good team.  Playing Atlanta doesn’t downgrade Davis (they’re 27th against the pass so far), but I don’t think you can count on him for another TD this week.  If you own him, sell high after 3 TDs the last two games.  5 catches, 40 yards, 0 TD

K/Def: Tennessee: In my league, the Titans had negative points last week.  That feat will relegate them to this spot again.  Anytime the 31st ranked passing defense plays against Peyton Manning, watch out.  38 points allowed, 2 sacks, 0 INT