2011 NFL Draft: My Ultimate Draft Class (Rounds 1-3)

Too many mock drafts and pre-draft anaylsis articles fawn over the top of the draft and do little for the middle of the road guys.  There are plenty of talented guys hidden in the 3rd-7th rounds who have fallen off NFL radars for one reason or another.  My “Ultimate Draft Class” takes more than just draftnik expectation into account.  I’m looking for production at the collegiate level, leadership qualities, heart and motivation.  Taking some average draft predictions (taken from a few of my trusted research publications), I’ll pick one guy for each round based on a mid-round selection (i.e. my 1st rounder will not be Bowers or Fairley).  Imagine picking teams on the playground for a heated pickup kickball game; six heavy hitters don’t make a perfect roster, you need a balance of hitting, pitching, fielding and dedication to the team.

Everybody has their favorite players and guys they pull for when the Draft rolls round, so let me know who you’re looking at and who you would want on your team.

 

ROUND 1: JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin:  I fell in love with JJ Watt sometime in November while watching him carve up Big Ten offensive lines.  He has a great motor and doesn’t give up on any play.  He has great size at 6’6″ and 290lbs (he’s bigger than Da’Quan Bowers and Adrian Clayborn, two other DE I like).  Realistically, his size will also allow him to switch inside to play DT in a 4-3 scheme as well.  In addition to Watt’s size, he has some great intangibles.  He started his career at Central Michigan as a TE, so he understands how offenses work.  He has great vision, as well.  In 2010, Watt batted down 8 passes; that’s more than Bowers and Clayborn had in their careers.  His athleticism won’t blow anybody away (4.85 speed), but he’s a complete package.  21 tackles for loss and 7 sacks means he can get into the offensive backfield and impact the game.  If drafted by the right team, I see Watt succeeding in the NFL for years to come.  (I gushed over Watt in a previous article)

ROUND 2: Jake Locker, QB, Washington: Locker’s draft stock took a hit after his poor Senior season.  He’s always had accuracy issues and hasn’t gotten past 58% completion percentage.  He has an injury history.  Too often, he disappears in the big games (5 completions in the Holiday Bowl; 4 completions against Nebraska).  Even with questions abound, Locker is an undeniably talented individual.  I’m not sure there is another quarterback with as good of an overall package.  Prospects Colin Kapernick and Tyrod Tayler are certainly faster and more athletic, but they do not have the passing ability that Locker has.  Despite his ups and downs, Locker’s teammates love him, he’s a great leader.  He has more heart than most, and will not back down from a challenge.  I think a team with an established starter should take a chance on him in the 2nd round (not worth a 1st rounder) and let him develop ala Aaron Rodgers.

ROUND 3: Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State: Depending on who you ask or what you read, Rodgers is as high as a late 2nd round pick or a early 4th round pick.  The vacillation is no doubt due to the questions regarding ‘Quizz’s size.  There are six guys I would put ahead of Rodgers: Mark Ingram, Mikel LeShoure, Daniel Thomas, Ryan Williams, Jordan Todman and Kendall Hunter.  Of those six, Rodgers is by far the smallest.  He’s also one of only two “draftable” RBs who have 3 career 200+ attempt seasons (undersized in his own right, Noel Devine is the other), and the only with 3 250+ attempt seasons.  So, despite his diminutive size, he’s durable and tough.  Rodgers suffered one injury in 2008 that forced him to miss two games and leave a third early.  Not counting those three contests, Rodgers has never had fewer than 14 carries per game.  Did I mention that Rodgers has also averaged 50+ receptions and 300+ receiving yards per season?  If it weren’t for his size, Rodgers, in my opinion, would be the undisputed #1 RB in the draft.

Next Week: Rounds 4-7

Nice Find: CFBStats.com – Hard to Find College Football Stats

If you’re a die hard NCAA fan or if you have a keen eye for the NFL Draft, you may have noticed the lack of statistics websites dedicated to the college game.  For sites that have good offensive statistics (ESPN, for example) defensive statistics are non-existant.  The NCAA.com stat charts are difficult to navigate and are user un-friendly when you can finally find them.

The other day when working on my first NFL Draft lead-up, I came across a site I wish I found years ago: cfbstats.com.

The sheer amount of statistical analysis that can be done using cfbstats.com is exhaustive.  I’m sure I haven’t even scratched the surface yet.  So, you’re a Cincinatti fan and want to take a closer look at backup QB Chazz Anderson’s stats.  You can find that he’s averaging 13.3 yards rushing per game or that he’s just 2-6 for 12 yards in the Red Zone; useless stats for many, but entirely important to others.  The game logs and situational stats are a must for any writter, blogger or any bar bet.

Considering the dearth of quality stat websites, cfbstats.com amazes me.  Honestly, I would love to know how the site’s author compiles all the information, but I’m sure that’s a trade secret they would rather keep quiet.  Take a few minutes to go peruse the site and definitely bookmark it for next season when you need some stat help.

Gimme Five: A Few (Very) Early NFL Draft Thoughts

My television spends an inordinate amount of time on the ESPN networks, especially around college bowl time.  I’ve noticed a welcome addition to their Bottom Line when noting the bowl games: draft projections.  I bet a lot of people haven’t noticed; either because it’s too soon or maybe they don’t care who the #48 ranked WR is (in related news, I can’t tell you who it is because ESPN wants me to subscribe to ESPN the Magazine in order to get Insider access, and I don’t want the damn magazine).  Well I have noticed, and I have some adjustments that I think should be made.

 

Overrated

Mark Ingram (ESPN Scouts Inc. Overall #24): There’s no denying that Ingram is skilled, but I just don’t see him 1) as a First Round pick, and 2) as a starter in the NFL.  I’m sure I’m in the minority on this, but I just don’t see it in Ingram.  Maybe what I’ve seen of him through his career were “bad” games, maybe, but I’m going with my gut.  When it comes to competing in the NFL, it’s a day to day grind that pits you against some of the best athletes in the world (not Duke, against who he rushed for 151 yards [17% of his season total] and 2 TDs on a 16.8 yards per carry average). Ingram would have benefited had he been able to come out last year (too bad for that communist 3-year rule, right Maurice Clarett?) after his monster 1,658 yard, 17 TD season.  His total numbers are down this year (875 yards, 13 TDs) although he still has a high yards per carry average of 5.5 yards.  I think Ingram would fit nicely with a team who wants to employ a two-back scheme.  My prediction for him is #33 to Carolina.

Justin Blackmon (#25):  Justin Blackmon has more talent in his right big toe than I have in my entire body.  I know that.  I admit that.  I don’t think his talent is overrated, but I question is intangibles.  Blackmon lit the Big 12 on fire (he was the first WR selected as Player of the Year) with 111 receptions for 1,782 yards and 20 TDs.  Those are incredible numbers, no doubt, but what about 2009 when Dez Bryant was suspended for a majority of the season?  Blackmon had 20 catches for 260 yards and 2 TDs; hardly mouth watering statistics.  When he was given the opportunity in 2009, Blackmon had 4 or less catches every game and did not have any plays longer than 32 yards.  I would argue that new coordinator Dana Holgorsen’s (headed to WVU after one season) scheme led to Blackmon’s explosion and fear that some NFL team may being buying blind.  For all of you that I haven’t swayed yet, how about this story: In October, Blackmon was arrested for speeding (30+ MPH over the speed limit) and DUI (he’s only 20 years old, so any BAC is against the law).  Blackmon was visiting former teammate and current Cowboy, Dez Bryant, and had three other people in the car with him.  To me, this suggests an immaturity that could get you in trouble in the NFL.  Unfortunately for Blackmon, I’m not sure I see a spot for him at the end of the First Round.  Many of the teams don’t need a WR (Eagles, Saints, Jets, Ravens) and most of the others wouldn’t take a chance on a guy of questionable character (Colts, Steelers, Falcons).  I’m left with the Chiefs, Packers and Patriots who may take a shot on Blackmon.

 

Underrated

Ryan Mallett (#31): With Andrew Luck committing to Stanford and staying for another season, I would make Mallett my number one, NFL-ready quarterback.  Mallett doesn’t have the athleticism of Jake Locker (#23) or Cam Newton (#29), but I’m not convinced either one of them can make all of the NFL throws.  Mallett, in my eyes, has a Brett Favre type arm.  He’s strong and gets the ball to the receivers quick.  In 2009, Mallett’s biggest downfall was his accuracy (55.8% completion percentage), but he improved upon that in 2010 by almost 10% (64.7%).  If he fell somewhere in the middle, he could be a solid starting QB in the NFL.  Mallett had 9 300-yard games in 2010 and 5 in 2009.  In my mind, he’s the best QB in the SEC, by far.  NFL scouts will love his size (over an inch taller than Newton and about 30 pounds heavier than Locker); at just under 6’7″, Mallett is even bigger than “Big” Ben Roethlisberger.  Depending on the ruler (which magically vary in length depending on who is holding them around Draft time), he may be the tallest QB after he’s drafted, right next to Joe Flacco and Derek Anderson.  With Luck off the board, and questions about Newton’s and Locker’s NFL readiness, I think Mallett will go much higher than his #31 rating.   I would not be surprised to see the Cardinals (#5), 49ers (#7), Titans (#8) or Redskins (#10) interested in Mallett.

Julio Jones (#17): I’ve liked Julio Jones since his freshman season and think he’s a close second to the top ranked WR, AJ Green (#5 overall).  His stats aren’t as eyepopping as Justin Blackmon’s, but I don’t care.  For me, Jones passes the eye test.  I’ve heard some analyst, I think from the NFL Network, describe guys as a man, and I think Julio Jones fits that description.  He bounced back from a sub-par sophomore season (43 receptions, 596 yards and 4 TDs) with a much better 2010 (78, 1133, 7).  I should probably mention that during that sub-par sophomore campaign, Jones was the leading WR on the National Champion Alabama team, which certainly adds some weight.  Given the chance, I think Jones can showcase is amazing consistency.  In games in which he played (he missed only one game in his three seasons), Jones was held to zero catches just once, against South Carolina and to one catch just four times.  I think Jones makes a lot of sense for the Redskins (#10) and the Rams (#14).

 

Honorable Mentions

As you repeat readers know, I’m a huge Michigan fan and end up spending a lot of time watching Big Ten football.  There are two guys that have stood out to me all season and really proved themselves in their bowl game performance.  The first guy to keep an eye on is Cameron Heyward.  Heyward’s stats aren’t as impressive as he is in my aforementioned “eye test” but they aren’t too shabby.  Heyward totaled 48 tackles, 13 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.  Heyward has a great motor (I’m sorry I said that, I hate when Draft analysts say that) and can play any of the DL positions effectively.  In the Sugar Bowl, Heyward had 6 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss and 1 sack.  JJ Watt of Wisconsin is another versatile DL propsect that will fit great in an NFL defense.  If you’re not seated, you should probably take a seat before reading Watt’s statistics.  I promise they are impressive.  In 2010, Watt totaled 61 tackles, 20.5 tackles for loss, 7 sacks, 7 pass break ups, 1 INT and THREE blocked kicks.  I think Watt fits best as a DE in a 4-3 scheme, but I can also see his athleticism (he was originally a TE) making him a viable 3-4 rush end.